Market Insight | Weekly Brief
October 09, 2023

S&P500 Bifurcation

S&P500 Bifurcation

About the Author

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Torsten Slok

Partner, Chief Economist

About the Author

avatar
Torsten Slok

Partner, Chief Economist

The seven biggest stocks in the S&P500 are up more than 50%, while the remaining 493 are basically flat.

The Weekly Brief is a short overview of the macroeconomic trends we’re tracking for investors, prospective clients, and market watchers by Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok.

From last week’s employment report, we learned that the US economy created 336,000 jobs in September—which was better than expected. In the week ahead, we will get CPI inflation data. The consensus expects headline inflation to come in at 3.6% and core inflation to come in around 4.1%—still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Taken together, we can assume that the Fed is not done with raising rates. This “higher for longer” scenario is biting harder and harder on consumers and corporates.

In looking at how markets are trading against this backdrop, we’ve been tracking the sizable divergence happening in the S&P500. The S&P 7, the seven biggest stocks in the index, are up 50% so far this year. Meanwhile the S&P493, the vast majority of stocks in the index, are essentially flat. The bottom line is that if you buy the S&P500 today, you are basically buying a handful of companies that have an average P/E ratio of around 50.


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October 09, 2023

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